Alex Andorra: How “The Selfish Method” Built a Top 1.5% Podcast in a Tiny Niche | One Thing That Worked

Alex Andorra

Host of Learning Bayesian Statistics — on building a top 1.5% podcast out of nearly 4 million shows by creating the exact show he needed, publishing biweekly since 2019, and staying independent through Patreon

Watch on YouTube The Podcast
21 minutes
Podcast Growth · Niche Strategy · Consistency · Community

About the Guest

Alex Andorra — Host of Learning Bayesian Statistics

Alex Andorra started Learning Bayesian Statistics in September 2019 — the only podcast dedicated to the topic in existence — while reorienting a career that began in management and political science, not math

Today he is a senior research scientist and open-source developer, and the show he originally built for himself now ranks among the top 1.5% of podcasts out of nearly 4 million globally, published like clockwork every two weeks

Top 1.5% Globally
Learning Bayesian Statistics ranks among the most popular shows out of almost 4 million podcasts worldwide — a result Alex says he never could have guessed
Biweekly Since 2019
a new episode every two weeks like clockwork, no matter what happened in his life — the boring consistency he credits most for the show’s growth
The Selfish Method
he created the show he needed for his own career, and it turned out there were tens of thousands of technical listeners who needed the exact same thing
Independent by Choice
no longer runs sponsors; costs are covered by the show’s Patreon so he can keep it a hobby and stay on top of his field

Key Quotes

“

I didn’t create the show actually for it to be listened to, but I created it for me. Basically, I created the show I needed.

Alex Andorra
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Since September 2019, whatever happened in my life, and a lot of things happened, good and bad, I had an episode released every two weeks, clockwork.

Alex Andorra
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If you have a problem, a lot of other people have the same problem. So just think about a way to solve your own problem. You’re helping yourself and you’re helping others in the same breath.

Alex Andorra

Episode Chapters

0:00 Intro 1:25 About Learning Bayesian Statistics Podcast 5:35 What Bayesian Statistics Is 8:44 The Main Thing That Worked 11:03 Building Network & Community 13:23 Monetizing The Show 16:17 Main Lessons from Alex

Full Transcript

BTW: This episode of One Thing That Worked is produced by Beverly Media. Featuring entrepreneurs and podcasters who share the one decision, strategy, or habit that had the biggest impact on their business.
0:00 Intro
Alex And I love them. I have a great audience who is usually very technical and loves to get into the details and being told that they are wrong, which is the best audience you can ask for. And so yeah, now the show is actually among the 1.5% most popular shows out of almost 4 million podcasts globally. So yeah, I could not have guessed that at all. And interestingly, I didn’t create the show actually for it to be listened to, but I created it for…
Sergey Hey everyone, welcome to One Thing That Worked. Today my guest is Alex Andorra who is a host of Learning Bayesian Statistics podcast. It’s the only podcast about the topic in existence. So Alex, welcome to the show.
Alex Yes, thank you Sergey. Well, well done on pronouncing my name and the name of the podcast at the same, like in the same sentence. I know it’s hard. Yeah, so thanks a lot.
1:25 About Learning Bayesian Statistics Podcast
Alex As you were saying, one of my main things is I have this podcast since 2019, now called Learning Bayesian Statistics. It’s not a very original name, but when I created it actually I didn’t know anything about Bayesian statistics. I was reorienting my career at the time. I studied management and political science, so nothing to do with what I do today. Now I’m a research scientist. And so I do very mathy statistical stuff, and I do a lot of open source development, but at the time I didn’t at all. And so that’s how I started the show. I learned a lot through podcasts. I listen to a lot of those. So congrats, by the way, on doing so many episodes. I’ve looked, you know, I’ve stalked you of course before the show. That’s the great thing of being a podcaster, you get to stalk people professionally. And I was super impressed by the number of episodes you have. I know it’s hard work. So really, really well done. So yeah, I’m very happy to be one of your guests.
Alex And yeah, basically the show, I started it because I learned a lot through podcasts and at the time there were no podcasts about Bayesian stats. And I was thinking, man, that’d be cool to have a podcast like that, you know, regularly so that basically I can get to hear from the best in the field. And then I was like, huh, actually, why don’t I try to do that? At the time I was a really clueless professional out of university. I didn’t like my job. And so I was like, I have nothing to offer to people I reach out to. But I was like, but if I reach out to them and I’m like, hey, you want to come talk for 1 hour and we’ll record it and then afterwards people will listen to it. Maybe they will accept. And that’s what happened basically.
Alex So that was very, very selfish at the beginning because I was like, I’m going to get to basically interview one of the best, you know, statistics professors in the world, somebody who is at the top of his field or her field, and then I get to suck in the knowledge for one hour and then share that with the world. So yeah, at the beginning it was a very selfish enterprise, let’s say. But now, but yeah, it turns out there is a lot of nerds out there like me and so they listen to the show, which is awesome. And I love them. I have a great audience who is usually very technical and loves to get into the details and being told that they are wrong, which is the best audience you can ask for. And so yeah, now the show is actually among the 1.5% most popular shows out of almost 4 million podcasts globally. So yeah, I could not have guessed that at all. And interestingly, I didn’t create the show actually for it to be listened to, but I created it for me. Basically, I created the show I needed. And yeah, very happy I did because it took me on a wild adventure.
Sergey Well, listen, congrats on, first of all, 161 episodes. I mean, I’m only at 80. So you got twice as many. So this is really, really cool. Let me proceed to asking you my go-to question for this show. What would you say is the one thing, one decision or habit or strategy that boosted this show, this podcast the most? So what worked the most?
Alex Yeah. Yeah. I think actually there are two things, but I’ll start with one and then you can ask me for a second thing if you want. But so first, before answering I should probably define a bit what Bayesian statistics is, you know, because otherwise like people will be like, what the hell is that?
5:35 What Bayesian Statistics Is
Alex So there are mainly two ways of doing statistics if you want in the world. There is the classic way you’re taught at university, which is called frequentist, and there is another way of doing it. Both have a different way of coming at probabilities basically, differently. So they define probability differently and that means the way you then do statistics is different. But interestingly, in the long run, that means as you get more data both kinds of statistics converge towards the same result. So mainly it matters when you’re in a low data regime, which is actually the case most of the time when you work on that.
Alex And so why is it called Bayesian? It’s after Reverend Thomas Bayes, who in I think it’s the 17th century, if I remember correctly, basically discovered that formula which now has his name, Bayes formula, which is basically the way to optimally update your belief mathematically based on data you observe. Okay. So if for instance your prior belief about me, Sergey, is that I’m actually an alien, you have a prior belief on that which is a prior probability, okay, which I hope is very low. But then you observe something, you know, I don’t know, you secretly come and draw my blood at night and then you see that my blood is actually blue. So you observe data. Now how should you update your prior belief about me being an alien based on my blood being blue? You should update it aggressively. Before, your probability should have been very low, but now you should update it very aggressively. But by how much? That’s exactly what Bayes formula is going to tell you.
Alex Basically, it’s a very simple formula actually. You can Google it, and based on what you believed before observing anything and what you just observed, it gives you the posterior probability that I’m an alien. That’s called a posterior probability because it’s after observing data. So basically that’s the way of doing statistics in the Bayesian framework. It’s a great framework to use when you don’t have a lot of data, when you have some prior knowledge about the phenomenon you’re observing and when you need uncertainty estimation. This is extremely useful. So that’s why it’s used a lot in medical settings. It’s used a lot by insurances, sports betting, sports analytics, electoral forecasting, lots of things. In marketing it’s used a lot also. So yeah, you’ll see that a lot basically. That’s Bayesian stats. Okay, so that’s what I do, that’s what I talk about on the show with experts.
8:44 The Main Thing That Worked
Alex Now, what was one of the main things that worked, I think, for the show being where it is right now? A very boring thing, honestly. I think it’s just regularity and frequency. Like, just since September 2019, whatever happened in my life, and a lot of things happened, good and bad, I had an episode released every two weeks, clockwork. And yeah, basically built a habit not only on my end, but I think also on the listeners where it’s like, you know, the show becomes a part of their routine. I know lots of listeners listen to it when they work out, you know, when they run or when they go for a walk or when they walk their dog, or when they do the dishes, stuff like that. And basically yeah, having that regularly come into their inbox basically made the show part of their routine. So in a way a very boring thing, but yeah, being persistent often in life is going to help you a lot and here that’s the case.
Sergey Do you know on average how many people listen to you monthly?
Alex Yeah, it varies. Of course, it depends on the episodes and how I have on air and it’s also seasonal, but most of the time it’s a few, how do you, tens of thousands?
Sergey Oh wow. Oh wow.
Alex Yeah, I told you there is a lot of nerds in the world.
Sergey Yeah, this is what, this was my initial thought that you actually didn’t go with a broad topic. You went with a really, really niche thing and, you know, for a lot of people it’s so difficult to choose among all the options, like what you’re going to focus on. So I think your other secret power is like a focus, focus on one thing.
Alex Wow, interesting. Then yeah, the fact that it’s a niche for sure.
Sergey Would you say that your network is also something that you want to thank, or network appeared as a result of the podcast more?
11:03 Building Network & Community
Alex Yeah, it’s much more like that. When I started the podcast, I didn’t know anybody. Nobody knew me. And actually the podcast gave me back so much because now I know so many people thanks to the show, because the show is well known in the field. And so yeah, it’s funny because at the beginning people were asking me, but how are you going to maintain that, you know, like how are you going to find topics and guests and so on, and it’s literally never been a problem at all.
Sergey First, how did you find guests? These scientists, it’s not like they grow on trees, right?
Alex Well, they kind of do. Like there is a lot of amazing people doing amazing scientific things in the world. It’s just like we don’t really hear a lot about them. So at the beginning it was a lot just me being curious and I’m just a naturally curious person who loves to learn. So anything I want to learn about, I Google people who work on that and are very renowned for what they do in that field and then I contact them and see if they want to come to the show. And that’s how I mainly did things at the beginning when nobody knew about neither me or the show. And now it’s much easier because I still reach out to people to come on the show when I see people doing interesting things that I’m curious about, but also I get a lot of people recommending me to come on the show. So that I do a lot, like when I get a recommendation from someone like a former guest or people who listen to the show that I know, you know, they are here often, I know about them and they recommend me someone, then I’ll check it out and if I like it I invite him. And of course I get a lot of people trying to get on the show by themselves, but that I almost never do it.
Sergey Never do. Wow.
Alex No, unless I know them already, but otherwise it’s just like it’s not a principle, but it’s just like it almost never is a good fit when somebody reaches out to me. It’s very funny, like sometimes it’s incredible, like the show is about Bayesian statistics and, I don’t know, you’ve got someone who wants to come on the show and talk about the business strategies or stuff like that.
Sergey Yeah. They’re probably driven by your metrics. They see that you have a coverage and they want to get on, but they’re not scientists. And speaking of metrics and speaking of sort of making money from your show or at least covering some expenses, am I correct that you do have some sponsors?
13:23 Monetizing The Show
Alex So I used to and now I don’t. Because yeah, the podcast is not really for me a source of income. I’ve never seen it that way. I really do it because it’s a way for me to stay on top of my field, be curious, learn from great people and, you know, just meet people. So now mainly there are some expenses because I need to, you know, pay for the podcast hosts and the website and the web developer and the people who handle the social media and stuff like that, but that I cover mainly through the Patreon of the show. So thanks to the patrons basically it just more or less covers the expenses of the show and that’s all. So what I get from the show, I get a lot from the show, a lot of value from the show. I just don’t get lots of money value out of it. But it’s mainly my choice. Like I’m sure there would be more ways to make money out of the show, but I don’t because I also don’t want to mix work and hobby. So that’s mostly a choice of mine.
Sergey Yeah. Is there a point of growth, of development of this show where you might consider putting it more on the financial rails and considering it as a primary earnings driver?
Alex Yeah, maybe like at some point down the road. We’ll see. The thing is that I think for that I’ll need to expand the audience and so for that I’ll probably need to be less niche. And I’m not sure, I mean I don’t want to do that right now and I’m not sure I will ever want to do that because what’s like the fun part of the show is precisely that it’s a niche show and I don’t go into, you know, broad topics that I don’t necessarily care about. That’s one thing. And second thing, as you attract more people you attract more detrimental people, let’s call it that way. And so that’s not necessarily the audience, like I don’t care about that audience. My audience is great and yeah, I enjoy interacting with them, whereas if you grow you necessarily interact with people you don’t want to interact with. And so yeah, it’s not something I want in my life right now.
16:17 Main Lessons from Alex
Sergey I’ll tell you the one lesson that I’ve extracted from our conversation and I will let you finish up strong by asking the main lesson for you from your podcasting journey. What I heard is that the key to your success is not thinking about others but thinking about the right others, and thinking about yourself, about thinking about your growth, thinking about, as you said, staying on top of your field and contributing to people who you really care about and who you want to bring value to in terms of your scientific community. So I think for all the podcasters who want to get to thousands of listens and views and downloads, I think the lesson here is to stay patient and not think about so much, you know, other people but maybe just grow your own game in whatever specific field of your choice. This is my takeaway. And what will be your main lesson to share, a practical lesson, something that people can do?
Alex Yeah. I mean, of course, it’s going to depend on people’s objective and what they want to do with, let’s say if they want to create a podcast. But you know, it’s mainly in the book world, you know, in the author world, usually authors say that they write the book they needed to read. And so for me, the podcast was exactly that. I created the podcast I wanted to listen to. Something that’s going to be very helpful in these endeavors is always to think about, okay, how can I help myself basically and help people, and you’re people. So probably if you have a problem a lot of other people have the same problem, and so just think about a way to solve your own problem. You’re helping yourself and you’re helping others in the same breath.
Sergey Exactly.
Alex Yeah, my problem was that I don’t know how to learn Bayesian statistics and I need to do that right now in a medium that I like and trust, like the audio medium. So, let’s try a podcast. And that just solved my problem, but I’m obviously not a special snowflake. So it solved the same problem that a lot of similar people were having. So that’s one of the main things, is think about the avatar basically of your show, right? Like who do you want to help? What does that person look like? What do they do? What do they need? Why would they even listen to that show? That’s one of the main things. And then the other one that’s extremely important is just being able to try stuff out and, you know, fail. Like this has been one of the most important things for me, has been related to, at the same time I was doing the podcast I learned how to code.
Alex And now unfortunately, with it’s a bit blurred, but at the time you need to learn how to program, and learn how to program is awesome because you’re going to fail all the time, like your program and your model are going to fail all the time until you get to a point where it’s like, okay, that’s good enough. And so learning how to program was amazing for me because it taught me that failure is fine, and actually it’s awesome because it gives you quick feedback, and having this quick feedback loop on how to improve your program and your model and then get to a point where it’s good enough and you don’t need it to be excellent and perfect. You need it to be good enough. That was amazing because it drilled into my mindset that, well, you need feedback to interact with the world and that’s how you’re going to grow and make this better. And so yeah, that’s also how I made the show better thanks to that, because I tried things and if it didn’t work I didn’t let that being personal, but I wanted to take that as feedback.
Alex So yeah, that and also the third lesson is honestly I do the show, again, that I like. It’s just like sometimes people are like, oh, why don’t you talk about that or this? I’m like, I don’t care. So, and it’s my show. So like I invite people that work on stuff I care about. So that’s also important, I think, because this is hard work. This is, it takes time. It takes persistence. And if you don’t like it, you’re not going to stick around.
Sergey Wonderful way of finishing the conversation. Thanks so much, Alex.
Alex Thank you. Yeah, thank you, Sergey. That was a pleasure to be in.